Survey: Psychological Profiles of Collapse – Results: Future of Energy

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 20, 2015

Discuss the results at the Survey Table inside the Diner

TAKE THE COLLAPSE PERSONALITY PROFILE SURVEY HERE

Internet-JunkieRecently inside the Diner we had a long and involved discussion about Psychological Profiling, centering mostly on Enneagrams, which attempt to categorize the psychological profile of people through 9 different categories. This is not the only such type of profiling out there, the Briggs-Myers system which uses 4 main categories is also commonly referenced for this type of stuff.

Several of the Diners took the Enneagram test, and we have a fairly wide distribution of types recorded from this type of test and the results also seem to be repeatable through different tests for a given indvidual, but I am curious (yellow) as to what personality types defined by these tests and structures are prevalent in the Collapse Community?

To try to get some handle on this, I have created a Survey which you can fill out once you take the Enneagram Test and the Briggs-Myers test.  You don't necessarily have to take the same ones I am linking to here, but the data is going to be more consistent if you use these tests.

I also am including a Link to an IQ Test, which is optional to take, it's not necessary for the Personality Profiling.  However, again I am curious as to what kind of IQ the typical Kollapsnik TM has, so I added this to the Survey.

This is a "fun" survey, not meant to be too serious, the whole psychological  profiling thing is rather nebulous to begin with and the sample size we are likely to get is not going to be that statistically significant.  Nevertheless, I am interested to see how the distribution of personality types is spread out.

The two main personality tests and IQ Test links are:

If you are going to fill out the survey, you will need to take at least the Personality Tests.  The IQ Test is Optional.  Each of the tests takes about 15 minutes to do, and the survey itself also another 10-15 minutes, so if you want to participate this will cost you an hour of your valuable time.  lol.

survey-saysOK, now on to the results from the Future of Energy Survey, which brought in a good sample size and very interesting results overall. πŸ™‚

The big question always posed on all collapse websites it the TIMELINE QUESTION? As in "When will *I* be unable to afford the gas or the pumps will be dry in *MY* neighborhood?  When will *MY* Lights go out?"  If this shit is happening to Greeks or Venezuelans, WTF CARES, right?  LOL.  As long as *I* am still doing OK, everything is PEACHY!  This is a particular problem here in the FSoA with the 20%  or so of still well-to-do Amurkans, who simply cannot fathom why the poor people can't get along, and why they feel the necessity to RIOT all the time?  What's with that #Ferguson shit, why don't these folks just do what the cops tell them to do?  LOL.

Anyhow, at least amongst Kollapsniks TM, we have a very solid consensus opinion on when the pumps will go dry and the lights will brown out regularly.  Very nice Bell Curve distribution on these questions, and if you believe Kollapsniks, then things will be going seriously SOUTH around 2025 or so.  Zager & Evans only got ONE digit wrong! πŸ™‚

Which is the closest year to which Gas/Petrol will either be unavailable or too expensive for most people to buy in your neighborhood?

  Now 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Available for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 4
(2.72%)
25
(17.01%)
44
(29.93%)
28
(19.05%)
14
(9.52%)
8
(5.44%)
24
(16.33%)
12.59 147

Which is the closest year to which on demand Grid Electricity will either suffer regular Brownout or Blackouts in your neighborhood 50% or more of the time?

  Now 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Available for the forseeable future Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 5
(3.4%)
18
(12.24%)
38
(25.85%)
24
(16.33%)
16
(10.88%)
6
(4.08%)
40
(27.21%)
12.95 147

2025 looks like the CRITICAL year to most Kollapsniks as far as availability of gas to do Happy Motoring and keeping the Lights On all the time in your digs.  I tend to agree with this assessment and 2025 was my vote on both of these questions.  What these questions also reveal is an approximation of how many Cornucopians haunt the Collapse Blogs, it appears to be between 15-30% of the readership.  These folks believe that the gas and electricity will continue to be available into the indefinite future.

Can Renewable Energy sources pick up the slack to maintain a technological society once Fossil Fuels cannot be accessed or afforded?

  Yes No Maybe, I'll explain it below Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 24
(16.33%)
92
(62.59%)
31
(21.09%)
30.54 147

Overwhelmingly, most Kollapsniks do not think Renewables can pick up the slack here once we drop off the Fossil Fuel based economy.  I tend to agree with this assesment as well.  Quite a few text responses came in for the "Maybe" choice, here they are:

What are your rationales for answering "maybe" to Renewables in Q3?

Text Responses

With farming and return to farm lifestyle. after tribal war and die off.
Low EROI Intermittent
It depends on what you mean by "technological society". I envision one that has – some – technology but only about 10% of our current energy usage.
if we can get around political obsticals and build more nuclear
production continues to ramp up immensely – the only thing preventing american access to cheap imported solar is bad tax policy
We need to drastically reduce consumption and inequality, go vegan, reduce human population voluntarily to about 10% of current levels (a stretch, I know), and put entire society on a "war footing." We probably need nuclear as well. We could maintain technological society but not today's consumption levels.
"Pick up the slack." What do you mean. Solar energy is to some extent suffering from a resource shortage: some rare earth metals. In PVs progress is being made, but then the inter-seasonal, daily and/or spatial production consumption imbalance will have to be overcome by large storage and /or transfer energy systems. In wind energy obviously similar issues play. These require huge amounts of resources (power storage reservoirs, compressed air batteries, huge power transport lines. Energy will never be cheap again, at some prices will reflect production cost (bye bye capitalism.). Our per capita energy consumption will (have to) go down. Living standards may follow. We may have to shrink as a species.
"Pick up the slack." What do you mean. Solar energy is to some extent suffering from a resource shortage: some rare earth metals. In PVs progress is being made, but then the inter-seasonal, daily and/or spatial production consumption imbalance will have to be overcome by large storage and /or transfer energy systems. In wind energy obviously similar issues play. These require huge amounts of resources (power storage reservoirs, compressed air batteries, huge power transport lines. Energy will never be cheap again, at some prices will reflect production cost (bye bye capitalism.). Our per capita energy consumption will (have to) go down. Living standards may follow. We may have to shrink as a species.
Not a technological society as we know it, but a society with some technlogy available to a few wealthy owners.
Not a technological society as we know it, but a society with some technlogy available to a few wealthy owners.
depends on priorities
The BIG game changer is whether or not storage can drop in price. It is disruptive technology. If storage drops to the 100/kwhr range or lower, it can change the whole energy distribution system. Not because of solar or wind, which it will obviously help. But because you no longer need to load follow, and have extra capacity online to meet -potential- load increases. It is a tremendous increase in efficiency. It is more danger initially to the FF industry then wind or solar. 100/kwh batteries also make electric cars the same price as their FF cousins. It allows for off-grid. The question is whether or not we can hit that goal or not, and the timeframe for achieving that goal. GM has announced it by 2022 which is 7 years. The potential is there.
BAU can not be supported by RE but a highly modified technological society can be. We will not have 24/7/365 electric. I expect we will have long distance communication via fiberoptic but maybe not video definitely not cell towers. I expect much lower population 90% less. On #6 below I mean simple tech no 20 billion dollar chip fabs. few or zero airplanes.
I should explain that there are no utilities in my neighborhood now. There are some real problems running industrial equipment on renewable energy sources, air travel will cost too much, and we should produce far less grain-fed meat, so there will be some major changes.
depends on economic and political conditions
All depends on the Hot Rocks – Nuke Puke situation. A different lower energy localized society might be possible. High rise towers could be used for local food production in lower density cities. Good design could minimize heating needs. A local large office building here in Vancouver is heated from the electrical lighting load, solar and occupant's body heat. Designed and built 50+ years ago.
Solar will become the dominant low cost energy as storage technologies (batteries and hydrogen predominantly) evolve.
Answer for #5. Manhattan Project style effort on LFTR research would be good to see. Probably too late, though. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor.
Only if expectations and levels of consumption are radically reduced – basically status quo lifestyle is a non-starter but a reduced expectation reality is.
We can replace 80% of electricity-generation fossil fuels with current technology; transport is probably doable but it requires significant breakthroughs.
Yes… esp if advanced biofuel, biooil, and other biological based fuel sources are utilized (algae, switchgrass, miscanthus, etc)
Fossil fuels won't become unaccessible or unaffordable in my lifetime.
Techincally, it could. The political and cultural changes also required are VERY unlikely to happen before it is too late to build the right technical infrastructure.
Energy from renewables will need to be directed to a smaller selected group of technologies, i.e. infotech, telecoms to continue the availability of knowledge and communication for people. Also continued production of high-tech for renewables themselves. Not on the receiving end. Long distance transportation of food/people/cheap-labour-produced dross, or tech for extracting/refining fossil fuels.
Transition time 30 years without causing problems, less than that and it will stress the system/public.
Sources that are neither fossils nor renewable such as nuclear energy will provide great amounts of energy. Renewable energy sources, solar in particular, will be more developed and produce greater amounts of energy than those sources do today. Also, if there would be a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology, energy problems would no longer be a problem.
a society capable of limmited electrically powered processes at a ~1920s level, with all else being at an early 19th century level. yes. modern modern. no.
With combined energy efficiency and lower population levels the remaining population may be able to maintain a technological society with renewable energy sources only.
It requires that collapse not happen for any other reason; and while I expect that renewable energy will be able to be produced using just renewable energy, there will be degradation in quality and capacity with every generation, like a xerox of a xerox.
Well, we have to actually start the infrastructure in a big way, then techology has to continue in a non petroleum based power future.
Maybe at some point in the distant future, but why would we want them to, and fossil fuels will always have some advantages.
At what cost. Renewables have displayed the ability to fill the void left by declining fossil fuels. Renewables are expensive and rely on heavy tax incentives.
Technically they could make a HUGE difference but it is culturally and politically UNLIKELY to happen before it is too late.
renewables' foundation rests on fossil fuels.
RE is constantly changing. Innovation is possible. You cannot foresee the future.
technology for the rich, back to 19th century for everyone else
To a certain extent since we have plenty of hydro, nuclear and wind. The problem is, of course, transportation. We have lots of public transportation and plenty of biofuels generated from waste so pehaps it is possible. We cannot overconsume, drive cars or grow the economy but perhaps we could have some form of sophisticated communication (internet)

Should more Nuclear Power Plants be built to pick up shortfall in electrical power as fossil fuels dwindle?

  Yes No Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 63
(43.45%)
82
(56.55%)
9.5 145

Nuke Puke was a pretty close vote for quite a while, running close to 50-50 in the early polling.  However, in the end the Anti-Nuke Greenies beat the Nuke Pukers, and more Nuke Plants were defeated in this vote.  It's highly unlikely many new ones will be built in any event, snce the end consumer can't afford to buy the electricity regardless of how it is produced.

In the event that we cannot find energy sources to replace fossil fuels in running our industrial economy, which outcome do you think is most likely?

  We will return to 18th century farming techniques at a lower population level We will shrink down to very small numbers and return to Hunter-Gatherer living We will maintain a technological society utilizing just renewable energy sources We will go Extinct Standard Deviation Responses
All Data 68
(46.9%)
21
(14.48%)
41
(28.28%)
15
(10.34%)
20.7 145

The overwhelming plurality of Doomers think we are destined to all become Amish people (47%).  A relatively small percentage think we are destined for Near Term Human Extinction (10% of the sample).  A very significant number (28%) of people fit in that Cornucopian slot, believing we will be able to continue onward with a Technological Civilization utilizing Renewable Energy sources.  I fit in the 14% or so who believe we are destined to vastly shrink in numbers and return to a Hunter-Gatherer lifestyle, although I think this will take quite some time to take place and we probably will do the Amish thing for a while.

All in all, this was one of the more enlightening surveys so far, in terms of getting a feel for what the attitudes and beliefs are of people who haunt the Collapse Blog-o-sphere.  Next up, we need to determine the Psychological Profiles of these Doomers.

TAKE THE COLLAPSE PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILE SURVEY HERE

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