Survey: What to do about the Refugees? Results: The Human Dieoff Timeline

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on September 8, 2015

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Discuss this at the Geopolitics Table inside the Diner


Most prominent in Collapse Newz over the last couple of weeks has been the rapidly escalating Refugee Crisis occuring over in Europe, as residents from failing states like Syria attempt to migrate into Europe, toward the Promised Land of Germany and other Northern European countries that still seem to be doing OK.

Of course, migrations have been ongoing for a long time, here in the FSoA there is constant conflict over the issue of "Illegal Aliens", mainly folks from the Latin countries of Central and South America who make their way north and cross at the Mexican border, although there are other routes as well.

I wrote an article about this a couple of weeks ago, The Refugee Tsunami, as the first of the big stories started to pop up in the MSM, but the recent photo of a young Syrian boy around age 3 lying face down and apparently dead has really brought this problem into the forefront as a humanitarian crisis.

I got together with Ugo Bardi from Resource Crisis, Steve Ludlum from Economic Undertow and Norman Pagett, one of the Authors of The End of More to finish out Part 3 of the discussions held a couple of weeks ago on Energy, Economics and Futurology with a discussion of Geopolitical Implications of Collapse, of which the Refugee Problem is a significant part.  Our discussion is at the top of this page.

You can also take part here in a Collapse Survey TM centered around how the Refugee situation will play out, and how it will be handled by the folks in charge of the political, economic and military machinery of Industrial Civilization.


Now onto the results from last week's survey, The Timeline for Dieoff of Homo Sap on Earth!

Cruising around the Doom-o-sphere, you'll find basic agreement these days that the Population of Homo Sap is set up for a major crash in numbers.  A few folks like Guy McPherson of Nature Bats Last even prognosticate a COMPLETE WIPEOUT of Homo Sap in a Near Term Human Extinction, as early as 2030  according to Guy before the last HS on earth buys his or her Ticket to the Great Beyond TM.

Of course, with 7B people currently ambulatory walking the Earth TODAY, to have every last one DEAD by 2030 means that even without any new births you need around 500M people to die every year starting NOW. Today. No, Yesterday. LOL.

Recall here that even through the Great Depression & WWII total deaths probably were no more than 50M.

The Black Death, the plague that hit Europe in the 1300s took around 7 years to knock off a top estimate of 200M people

The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 75 to 200 million people and peaking in Europe in the years 1346–53.[1][2][3] Although there were several competing theories as to the etiology of the Black Death, analysis of DNA from victims in northern and southern Europe published in 2010 and 2011 indicates that the pathogen responsible was the Yersinia pestis bacterium, probably causing several forms of plague.[4][5]

Whether you believe ALL people will DIE, MOST people will DIE or only SOME people will DIE, the main questions to deal with here are WHEN will this Dieoff begin, how BIG will the population actually get before the dieoff gets underway, and how FAST will this dieoff go?

These were the question answered by the Kollapsniks TM last week here on the Doomstead Diner.  Here are the results (through Sunday 9/6/2015)

Most Doomers peg the dieoff to begin between 2020 and 2030.


More than 50% of Kollapsniks TM believe the population will begin to decrease before we make it to 8B.  There are a few people in the sample who think the population will continue to increase through this century though.  Refugees from a Cornucopian Website no doubt.


Doomers tend to believe the dieoff will proceed fairly rapidly once underway, with more than half seeing the population halved in 30 years or less.  To make it EZ, if you start with 8B and cut it to 4B over 40 years, this means every year you need 100M more Dead People than Live Births every year, which you might just about be able to handle and get all the graves dug.  Much faster than that, disposal would be a problem.


Now, if you want one Infographic which will tell you first where the greatest percentage Dieoff will occur, and second what places people will be trying to EXIT from and where they will be trying to GET to, this one is it.

Choose your destination with care, and then Lock & Load.  This is not going to be pretty.