Off the Keyboard of RE
Discuss this article at the Geological & Cosmological Events Table inside the Diner
In the long standing Diner tradition of covering major Weather events, along with the Pro Meteorologists the Diners are looking at Sandy as a BIG ONE. Mostly we discuss these events inside the Diner, but this one appears to me to be sufficiently impressive in scope that I am going to Blog it also.
To begin, a few of my initial comments inside the Frankenstorm Snor’eastercane Sandy thread inside the Diner:
- Another new weather phenomenon to go with the Haboobs. And no, that’s not a description of Raquel Welch’s tits.
- The Mets are gettting all excited now. “Perfect Storm” Metaphors etc, Wet Dream for a Weatherman. LOL.
DUD or Weather Doom? Place your Bets here in the thread before Sandy makes landfall!Quote
Many forecasters are warning that Sandy could be more destructive than last year’s Hurricane Irene, which caused billions of dollars in damage across the U.S. Northeast.
According to all the Top Mets like Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, Sandy is set up to be even BIGGER than Irene, which just last year caused $Billions$ in damages up through the East Coast corridor, one of the most densely populated techno-societies anywhere, with endless miles of Electrical and Communications wire and fiber optics strung around the neighborhood.
Up in Vermont after Irene, numerous towns were CUT OFF, as many Historic Covered Bridges went washing down the Raging Rivers. We don’t know to this day how many miles of roadway were repaired, regraded and repaved, but we DO KNOW that in the aftermath of that Hurricane FEMA was essentially TAPPED OUT of funds, and one wonders where they are getting their next infusion of Funding to repair AGAIN many of the SAME roads and SAME miles of Electrical cable strung up around that neighborhood?
How about all those folks living in various towns in NJ that suffered record flooding from Irene, but who resolutely hang out in them (because where do they have to GO afterall?), and who now seem quite likely to get a Repeat Performance this year? How many times can we Rinse & Repeat this scenario before people just get TIRED of it and start streaming out of these neighborhoods looking for somewhere to go?
Where “Safe” to go INDEED is the question. With these massive precipitation events, Mountains are not real safe due to Flash Flooding and Landslides. Head Inland to the Great Plains, where Drought is killing the Corn and Soybean crops? Head to the West Coast and the Hotel California, where you can Check Out but you can Never Leave?
I have little doubt that Da Goobermint will conjure up another few $Billion$ here to clean up after Sandy finishes dumping the water vapor sucked up from the Heating Atlantic ocean. The Wires will be restrung again. Happy days I suspect for Construction Workers and Linemen for the County called back in to work for a few months in the Cleanup.
Of course, when they can’t get Diesel to run the Heavy Equipment, the Cleanup is going to be a whole lot more difficult. When the Lights stay OFF for more than a Week, REALITY is going to start setting in here, and we will move into the next stage of Industrial Civilization Collapse.
It won’t be pretty, that is for sure.
Looks like the Big Apple is set to take a Direct Hit again, this time at Full Moon High Tides.
Zero Hour looks to be Tuesday Morning, a week before the POTUS Election. Its a slow moving storm too, so if there are mass power outtages they may still be persisting to Election Day. Reschedule the Election? Can you IMAGINE the “irregularities” that will occur? This will be worse than Bush-Gore.
This is going to be a GREAT WEEK for Doomering!
NY Shity is going to shut down the Subways AGAIN.
Wind field size on Sandy is HUGE, and a very BIG fetch on the inbound track it is taking.
Water temps are at all time highs for this time of year (big surprise there), So Sandy will likely crank up a bit tomorrow.
Let’s first look here at Sandy’s projected Track:
As you can see, Sandy stays well offshore until the Dogleg to the Northwest for final approach. Quite different than Irene, which hugged the coast and actually made a landfall in the Outer Banks before making a second landfall in NY Shity and so had a lot of power sapped out of it. Circulation around the central low pressure zone of Sandy has nothing to disturb it until it crashes into NY Shity Harbor, assuming it follows this track and just about all the Models agree on this one.
Also, this track takes Sandy over just about the same stretch of NJ and PA that got so badly flooded from Irene. Impossible to predict Rainfall totals here, currently the Pro Mets are talking 5-8″, but this is highly dependent on how fast Sandy moves and how much water vapor she collected up on the fetch inward.
What REALLY makes Sandy different from Irene though is the “Perfect Storm” confluence of meeting up with another Weather System that is approaching from the West carrying a lot of cold air. In higher elevations and in the more northern sectors once Sandy rolls over NY, VT and NH, this could be a MAJOR snowfall event measured in FEET. In Buffalo where they often get dumped on by HUGE snowfalls in normal circumstances because of Lake Effect snow, it could be truly Record Breaking. Buffalo ALSO is the first place Edison wired up for Electricity, fittingly enough since a huge Blackout situation is pretty much a GUARANTEE here.
On a Political Level, Sandy’s arrival RIGHT before the POTUS election means the Political Significance of this storm is extraordinary. The East Coast is the most populous are of the FSofA, and how Obama-sama handles the Disaster can easily sway this election. If a significant portion of the East Coast is still without Power by Election Day, there is about no way the O-man can win. Then of course is the question of whether they will hold the election at all or delay it, as I mentioned in one of my posts.
Alaska HAARP ARRAY
Finally, for the Conspiracy Theory crowd, there is an awful lot of RARE COINKIDINK here. Hurricanes hitting the East Coast at this time of year are pretty rare occurrences, rarer still are “Perfect Storm” scenarios of 2 major weather systems meeting up like this. Then for all that to occur on PRECISELY the week the POTUS election is scheduled…well the statistical chances of this being a Random Event seem mighty small to me. Much has been written about HAARP and the possibility that weather systems can be created at will now by the Military-Industrial Complex. I have my doubts this is possible, but such a remarkable COINKIDINK makes me VERY SUSPICIOUS.
Update: Will the Subways Flood?
Jeff Master’s article on his Wunderground Blog highlights the biggest single economic danger from Sandy, the possibility that the Storm Surge will overtop the seawalls in southern Manhattan and flood the vast network of underground tunnels and electrical conduits beneath the city streets.
Anyone who has ever been to NY Shity knows there are no High Voltage Power lines on poles above ground bringing electric power to the NYSE and Goldman Sacks-the-taxpayer, all of these lines are below ground in lower Manhattan, well protected from Wind Damage but extremely vulnerable to flooding. In this case with seawater, a fabulous electrical conductor and also extremely corrosive.
If the seawall is overtopped, the many Tunnels out of lower Manhattan that connect it to the Mainland and to Long Island could fill with water. Estimates are it would take a month to pump them out and get them operational again. Without these tunnels operational, it would be just about impossible to commute into and out of Wall Street.
Besides that, although many of their computer centers are now remotely located, it would be about impossible to run many of the Bloomberg Terminals on Emergency Generator Power for more than a few days. Getting the fuel to run said generators into lower Manhattan itself would be a nightmare.
Just the repairs alone would cost $Billions$, and the inability to “do bizness as usual” for a full month would cost many billions more in lost ttax revenue and so forth.
Sandy’s projected track puts the maximum Storm Surge straight into NY Shity Harbor. Jeff Masters gives it a 30% chance of overtopping the Seawalls. I think he is being generous there, not to seem too Doomerish but at the same time covering himself if it does flood.
This is one question which will be answered fairly rapidly, since it will/will not occur inside a few hours when Sandy makes Landfall. If it does overtop, you’ll get the same kind of dramatic footage that occurred when the levees were Breached during Katrina.
NY Shity is highly dependent on the subways and light rail lines for moving around so many people in that machine. Many do not even OWN carz.
If the Subways FLOOD, this is a Black Swan of immense proportions. Wall Street will have to move their operations to data centers on the mainland, and that will be very hard to do since those DCs are not set up for people to commute to.
The Clock is Ticking on a Time Bomb here. Wall Street is a CENTRAL NODE for all International Trade, and disruption of those operations at this level for a month is a domino that will cascade through the entire Global Financial system.
Not $Billions$ in losses there.
For you HAARP Conspiracy theorists out there, this is Grist for the Mill.
Westchester County Communications Officer Sandy Fried, an Amateur Radio operator and ODES staff member, had recently attended a training seminar at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Part of the training was a simulation using data from the Hurricane of 1938 that caused major losses on Long Island and in Westchester. The texts of the simulated bulletins, forecasts, discussions and strike probabilities along with the hurricane’s track were sent home with the seminar attendees. We named the simulated hurricane after Sandy, who incidentally was nine years old during the real Hurricane of 1938.
These texts were used as the drill stimulus. They were time-shifted to simulate land-fall around 6pm on Saturday, October 4th. Working backward from this time, we used these texts to generate and automatically update a World Wide Web status page (http://www.weca.org/SET) and send email to the Westchester ARES/RACES email reflector and fax to the County Emergency Operations center at the times that the National Weather Service would normally have sent them.
The latest animation from NHC of the satellite imagery shows that Sandy is getting better organized and has developed a well defined eyewall now.
The NYSE now will NOT open up after all, as the Illuminati who make these decisions now think it will be too difficult to run the show from remote locations. Closed through Tuesday at least.
The biggest aspect of this Frankenstorm hasn’t even really begun here yet, it’s the merger with the 2 other Winter Storms coming in from the North and West that make this scenario much different than the “typical” Northeast Hurricane track.
Normally shortly after making landfall the Hurricane would lose most of its wind speeds, then the remenants of the storm would sweep up and out over new England to the Atlantic again. Not so with Sandy.
Because of the merger with the other systems, Sandy is expected to undergo “Baroclinic Enhancement” and the powerful winds will persist well inland and for several days. In fact they are prediciting 26′ waves around CHICAGO off Lake Michigan. That is Waiamea Bay surfing on a LAKE. New Nature indeed, eh?
The “good newz” here is that the ground is not as saturated as it was when Irene hit, so they currently don’t expect as much inland flooding. However, I think this really depends on just how many days of torrential rains they actually get and how it all actually collects up in the watershed.
Besides rain also in this situation is the fact it is going to come down as snow in the higher altitudes and inland north. Estimates are they might get 3 FEET of snow in the Smokies and Blue Ridge Mountains. With lots of trees still in Leaf, this means a lot more power lines down, and also harder to get the Cherry Picker trucks moving around.
The main question in my mind is whether the power outtages will all be local or whether the whole grid will get compromised with loss of the big transformers in Upstate NY. That could bring on an India style Blackout of 100M people taking out the whole Eastern Seaboard.
All in all, Frankestorm Sandy is shaping up to be the Storm of the Century.