Parsing the Middle East

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Over on The Automatic Earth in the comments, El Galinazo put up this vid of Secretary of War Leon Panetta explaining to CONgress exactly how the decision to Rain Death From Above on obstrperous MENA Nations will be made, by seeking a “Legal Basis” through NATO or the UN to bomb them back to the Stone Age if they won’t Play Ball.

Coincidentally here, 1 Year Ago almost to the DAY I posted up on TBP a Frostbite Falls Daily Rant called “Parsing the Middle East. At the time, Muammar El-Kabong over in Libya was still Walking the Earth, and we had not at that point yet brought in the Death From Above on the Libyans. That came soon thereafter, so my Over/Under there at the end of the rant was a Winning Bet.

However, there remains still no “Official” War being waged by FSofA/NATO down there, but if you pay close enough attention to the various military operations (Carrier Group movements etc) you should realize that the War is already happenning. So far of course, we have not experienced any obvious Oil Shortages, at the time I really had not examined the effects of both Demand Destruction here and in Eurotrashland and increasing Oil Production going on here in the FSofA from Bakken. What Oil has been shut in down in Libya is compensated for by lower demand, but at the same time you do see the Higher Prices coming in as well. With decreased demand you should not get higher prices, but you are because of restricted movement of Oil and also ramping up of Oil Consumption by the Big Ass Military. It takes a LOT of Oil to keep those carrier Groups moving around the Meditarranean and Gulf of Suez and Straights of Hormuz you know. Your SUV is competing for Oil with F-16s flying Training Missions and burning Jet fuel and Destroyers burning Bunker Fuel to keep up with the Carriers and Subs running Nuke Engines.

Anyhow, most of the analysis in this Rant remains as true today as it was one year ago. We haven’t yet reached the point where its Mano-a-mano with the Chinese and the Ruskies, but you can see this one coming down the pipe also. If/when NATO or the Israelis decide to Light Up the Skies of Tehran, one suspects the Chinese will stop Pussy Footing around here. Iran is their second largest supplier of Oil. There simply is no way the Chinese can let this one slide. Iran is NOT a dipshit little Oil producer like Libya. They will NOT sit on the sidelines for that battle.

RE

 

RE’s Daily Rant-3/7/2011

Posted on 7th March 2011 by Reverse Engineer in Politics |Social Issues

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Parsing the Middle East

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Today’s rant examines scenarios for the escalating War for Oil in the Middle East.

Quote of the Day

Revelation 6:8

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.

A Tale of Two Depressions

As the Great Depression progressed onward, the early collapse in RE prices made many Banks insolvent, which then precipitated the Stock Market Crash of 1929.

Saudi Arabia is Going Down

When the Saudis have to Ban Protests in an already ridiculously repressive state, the End is not far off.

High Commodity Prices Leading to Global Food Crisis

“Without exception, genuine famines have political as well as agricultural causes. A crop failure is redeemable through cross-border flows of money or food, but where political conditions disrupt these flows; or worse, where food is provided or withdrawn as a mechanism of engendering political obedience, starvation looms.”

As predicted quite some time back before I even began the Daily Rant series, the M.E. Spin Out has now reached the Center, Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are cracking down on Demonstrations, claiming them to be “illegal” under Sharia Law. They have mobilized some 10,000 Police to try to quell uprisings in the provinces. Given what we have seen to date through the rest of the region, it seems unlikely that they will be successful.

This brings still closer the question of exactly what Obama-sama will DO about all this? Referencing the Obamanista, what I really mean is what will his Handlers tell him he must do?

At the moment all through the M.E., there are Oil Wells that are getting switched to OFF like lightbulbs. At least one in Libya is on fire, but one has to wonder just how effectively Oil is getting moved out from the wells in Tunisia and Algeria as well? Not to mention Iran of course, itself also undergoing Political Turmoil. Even if the Spigot hasn’t been shut completely yet, there is a blockage here in the pipeline that did not exist before. It has to be squeezing the supplies.

We do have Oil in the SPR of course, and in addition to that there is a large floating inventory of Oil in Tankers on the High Seas, which Somali Pirates occasionally Poach. Once suspects together this inventory can provide a Buffer against at the Pump shortages of Gas and Diesel for say 6 months. However, as it draws down, it will force TPTB to take some form of Offensive Action. What form will that take?

So far, the “Arab League” has come down as being against NATO forces being dropped down into their territory to take one side or the other in conflicts in countries other than their own. These are Arab problems that Arabs should resolve is the Politically Correct wisdom. Pretty clearly though the Arabs cannot solve their own problems, because the problems they have are not soluble. The problem is way too many people living on land with insufficient water supplies and insufficient food production.

At the moment, the most likely scenario mapped out by the Illuminati would be to let the various countries in the M.E. spin into complete disorder over the next 6 months while BAU continues on here and our population is kept relatively clueless. During this time, the SPR and Floating Inventory will be drawn down to give the appearance of BAU. When the SPR is about half drained and Gas Rationing becomes necessary, THEN Obama-sama delivers the Message from the Teleprompter on National Television that we MUST go in and SAVE the Arabs from themselves. By then, these countries should be in such a state of anarchy a few NATO troops will be able to go in and secure the Oil Fields, heck with what is going on in the rest of the country. If a bunch of Towel Heads in Riyadh are fighting each other over the last scraps of food and last of the potable water, how is that our problem? That is their problem, not our problem. Our problem is securing the Oil Fields.

In this scenario, when the local Arab “terrorists” attack the NATO troops guarding the Oil Fields, we will be “Defending them against Terrorists”, not “Stealing the Fucking Oil”, which is what we REALLY will be doing. LOL. The big question would be how effectively we really can take over these Oil Fields and then Hijack the Oil onto our own Tankers to ship it out of the War Zone to our refineries. Hell, the Italians don’t need the Oil anyhow, Zamboni just invented Cold Fusion over there.

I have been reading the plethora of stories coming off the MSM regarding the Obamanista’s “plan” to step in to the Libyan conflict if the Crimes Against Humanity become overwhelming. Incredibly stupid stuff. Calling on el-Kabong to step down plays well in the MSM, but it is certainly no solution to the problem which goes far beyond his sorry ass. The MSM is downplaying the Refugee problem, but it has to be enormous on the borders. People are trying to flee from one War Zone into another one. Libya borders on Algeria on one side, Egypt on the other. In neither case are Algerians or Egyptians able to run Refugee Camps along these borders. A very few people are getting yanked out of the region by Military planes, obviously the very well connected. Everybody else is pretty much SOL, and getting Humanitarian Aid (aka FOOD) into these places where there are no real central Refugee Camps is about impossible. These folks are just fucked big time now.

The U.N., aka the “Humanitarian Peacekeeping” political tool of the Illuminati is already making noises about being “allowed” to go in and set up Refugee Camps. Effectively the idea here is to set up a DMZ between various countries all embroiled in civil wars, which then also become platform to work from in regaining control over those countries, and hopefully installing a Puppet Goobermint before all the Oil Assets are permanently FUBAR. I don’t see it as likely that el-Kabong will be too amenable to this, and he actually seems psycho enough he would send in jets to bomb refugee camps. El-Kabong is not in the least bit concerned with world opinion.

The Clock is Ticking on a major Military intervention in the M.E., and the number of Boots on the Ground it will take simply boggles the mind. I cannot imagine the Chinese will allow NATO to go in Unilaterally to try to secure these Oil Fields. What I CAN imagine now at this point is another Unholy Alliance between NATO and the Chinese to descend from East and West on the M.E in order to “restore Peace”. I say “another” because this is JUST like the alliance formed with Stalin to put Hitler in a Pincer between East & West in WWII.

The Chinese of course can put a SHITLOAD of Boots on the Ground at the drop of a hat as long as NATO Naval assets allow them through to make a Beachhead. So some kind of deal gets brokered here to use Chinese Boots and NATO Air and Naval Power to divvy up the remaining Oil in the M.E.

Sadly of course, I don’t think the current residents in the area will look upon a sea of Chinese Slant-eyes overrunning their neighborhoods as “Liberators”. You are not going to have Burkha clad Muslim women spreading their legs for the Chinese “liberators” quite as willingly as the French girls did for the GIs in WWII. Not that they won’t be spreading their legs in equal numbers though, just it won’t be quite so willingly.

Logistically speaking, if the supply lines can be set up to run this show, Wave after Wave of disposable Chinese Cannon Fodder can go in and eventually virtually completely wipeout the extant population of Muslims in the M.E. in Genocidal Fashion. Eliminating say 1B hungry mouths from the market as a whole would put the remaining population back in surplus for a while. Numerous excess Chinese Males would be extinguished during this fight also of course.

The key to making the whole show work is keeping the backflow of Oil OUT of the war zone functioning throughout the war. One suspects that the locals as they get overrun by a sea of Chinese will pursue a Scorched Earth policy, and blow every well and every pipeline in the neighborhood before they go to meet Allah. This is a state change problem that is almost impossible to model. At some point if the Oil flow is beneath what is necessary to support the military force, you will get a rapid collapse of that force. Bound to happen at some point, just impossible to model how long before it actually occurs.

Anyhow, near term, NATO, the UN and Puppet Obama are all floating in the MSM ideas on how to drop military forces into the neighborhood without an actual Declaration of War. A “No-Fly” Zone has already been exposed as necessitating bombing Libya back to the Stone Age in order to try to destroy their Anti-Aircraft capability before it could be implemented. It would be hard at the moment to sell a Shock & Awe aerial bombardment campaign over Tripoli to the general public right now. The Illuminati will likely keep Tiptoeing around the problem until the SPR is maybe half emptied, at which point they institute Gas Rationing. That by itself should be sufficient to get J6P to buy into a Full On War for Oil against the Towel Heads.

Over/Under on the Timeline? 6 months.

RE

Discuss this article at the Geopolitics Table in the Diner

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